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The 2024 MLB Draft

MLB Draft 2024 Analysis: Who Do The St. Louis Cardinals Take At No. 7?

MLB Draft 2024 Analysis: Who Do The St. Louis Cardinals Take At No. 7?

Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt and Sonny Gray hope that this is the last time the St. Louis Cardinals draft in the top-10 for a while.

Mar 5, 2024 by Joe Harrington
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The St. Louis Cardinals will draft No. 7 overall in the 2024 MLB Draft and that never really happens. 

The last time the Cardinals had a pick in the top 10 of the draft was 1998. The highest pick from 1999-2023 was No. 13, which happened twice. This is what happens when a team hasn’t finished in last place since 1990 and hasn’t finish last in the National League since 1918. 

It makes that seventh pick in the draft important, because the organization doesn’t expect to draft this high again in the near future. 

And neither to the projections. 

Despite finishing last with a 71-91 record in 2023, Baseball Prospectus’ projection analysis known as “PECOTA” says the Red Birds will win 84.6 games and win the National League Central Division. And that’s even after the Chicago Cubs re-signed Cody Bellinger. 

Of course PECOTA is often wrong because it’s based projections. So a team with a pair of future Hall of Fame, corner infielders who signed the runner-up to the American League Cy Young Award is going to fare pretty well. 

But there are underlying issues. For starters, the lineup looks pretty similar to the 71-win team. The bullpen added pieces but the did the team it fix it? The rotation was bad in 2023. While adding Sonny Gray certainly gives them a legit ace, the other two additions (Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson) are either coming off bad seasons (Lynn) or drastically average seasons (Gibsons). And the Cardinals fifth spot seems to be influx as Spring Training hits the mid-point. 

Paul Goldschmidt, the 2022 MVP, and Nolan Arenado, arguably the best third baseman this century, were in the rumor mill during the 2023 trade deadline season. The Cardinals chose not to move them and are clearly trying to win. But both are in their 30s, including Goldschmidt who is 36. 

Goldschmidt was still elite in 2023, but there was a drop off from his 2022 MVP season. Arenado didn’t win the Gold Glove at third base for the first time in a decade. 

The pitching is old even with the additions, the manager, Oliver Marmol, has had locker room kerfuffles in past years and the backbone of the “Cardinals Way,” the home grown prospects who turn into stars and above average players, hasn’t produced quite as well as it used to. 

That’s why Goldschmidt and Arenado were traded to the club in the first place. 

That’s a lot of pressure on bubbling star Jordan Walker, who may be playing out of position as he tries to continue his transition from third base to the outfield. 

And while the Cardinals farm system ranks in the bottom half. Meanwhile, the four other National League Central teams have top-half minor league systems. 

On paper, the Cardinals look like a World Series contender. But they looked like one of those in 2023 as well. 

If the Cardinals are on the verge of the first actual rebuild in, well, ever, the No. 7 pick becomes important. If the Cardinals hope to contend with this current group for the next three years, the No. 7 pick is incredibly important both for on-the-field purposes and trade purposes. 

Because this never happens. 

So who will the Cardinals take with the No. 7 pick?

What The St. Louis Cardinals Roster Has Before The 2024 MLB Draft

The Cardinals were bad in 2023 because of the pitching. 

  • They ranked 24th in team ERA. 
  • They gave up the second most hits. 
  • The bullpen had the eighth-worst ERA. 
  • The rotation had just 30% of its starts ruled as a “quality start” and just 48 overall. 
  • Starting pitchers combined for just 43 wins and took 64 losses. 

Because of this, the Cardinals made Sonny Gray their top priority. The veteran pitcher finished second to Gerrit Cole in the American League Cy Young race in 2023 for the Minnesota Twins and parlayed that into a three-year $75 million contract. The Cardinals then added a former starter, Lance Lynn, and then signed Kyle Gibson. 

Miles Mikolas is the only veteran returning starter to the bullpen. 

Behind Gray, who had a 2.79 ERA and went 8-8 in 184.0 innings and 32 starts, the Cardinals are relying on 35-year-old Mikolas (4.78 ERA, 9-13, 201.1 inning), 36-year-old Lynn (13-11, 5.73 ERA, 183.1 innings) and 36-year-old Gibson (15-9, 4.73 ERA, 192 innings) to eat innings, keep the bullpen usage low and, best case scenario, pitch like they have in past years. 

That is the story of the Cardinals roster. That is what makes or breaks them. The bullpen did add Andrew Kittredge and Nick Robertson and it looks like the backend of games will still be on Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos. 

If the pitching can survive, the offense can carry the Cardinals. 

They ranked 15th in overall batting, 14th in hits, 12th in runs, 14th in total bases and slugging– the offense was good enough in 2023. They have the cornerstones in Goldschmidt and Arenado. The have the do-it-all utility player, Tommy Edman. Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar are all players with upside. Jordan Walker, a former top prospect, looks like a star. 

They also have Willson Contreras, only one of the best hitting catchers in baseball. 

If the pitching doesn’t hold up, there are a lot of pieces St. Louis could move to kickoff a rebuild. 

St. Louis Cardinals Prospects and Minor League System

The farm system ranks No. 20, down 11 spots since the graduation of Jordan Walker. The Cardinals are hoping that Masyn Winn wins the starting shortstop job this spring training and the team hasn’t exactly been coy about that. They signed veteran Brandon Crawford after spring training started just for insurance. 

Tink Hence and Tekoah Roby are the top pitching prospects. Winn (39), Roby (75), outfielder Victor Scott (83), Hence (84) and Thomas Saggese (85) round out the Cardinals top-100 prospects according to Baseball America. 

Who Are The St. Louis Cardinals Taking With The No. 7 MLB Draft Pick?

This is where the first pitcher, based on the current prospect rankings, should go. And the Cardinals need pitching fast. 

The rotation will be one of the oldest in baseball this season and while Hence and Roby are coming through the system, the Cardinals should be thinking of adding another high-profile pitching prospect. 

Hagen Smith of Arkansas Baseball is making a strong pitch for the No. 1 draft pick, not just the first player taken. The lefty had an outing for the ages against Oregon State in his second start this season. He fits the bill for this spot. 

Smith in his first three starts has a 3.86 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 13 innings. 

Last year, the No. 7 pick was Rhett Lowder out of Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons have a pair of pitchers who could go here too, including Chase Burns, a RHP, who has some of the best “stuff” in college baseball. His teammate Josh Hartle, LHP, also fits the bill as the first pitcher chosen. 

Last year, the Cardinals took Chase Davis with the No. 21 pick. But the 2022 and 2021 first round picks were pitchers Michael McGreevy and Cooper Hjerpe. McGreevy, 23, is in Triple-A and the No. 12-ranked prospect, while Hjerpe is the No. 7 prospect and in High Single-A. 

More MLB Draft 2024 Coverage 

When Is The 2024 MLB Draft?

The 2024 MLB Draft is part of MLB All-Star week and will be in Arlington, Texas, where the World Series champion Texas Rangers are hosting the All-Star Game. 

The All-Star Game is July 16. The official date of the draft has yet to be announced, but the 2023 MLB Draft began the Sunday before the All-Star Game, which was played on Tuesday.  

MLB Draft 2024 Order

The New York Mets, New York Yankees and San Diego Padres’ first picks dropped 10 spots because the clubs exceeded the second surcharge threshold of the competitive balance tax by more than $40 million. 

Here’s the order: 

  1. Cleveland Guardians
  2. Cincinnati Reds
  3. Colorado Rockies
  4. Oakland A’s
  5. Chicago White Sox
  6. Kansas City Royals
  7. St. Louis Cardinals 
  8. Los Angeles Angels 
  9. Pittsburgh Pirates
  10. Washington Nationals 
  11. Detroit Tigers
  12. Boston Red Sox
  13. San Francisco Giants
  14. Chicago Cubs
  15. Seattle Mariners
  16. Miami Marlins 
  17. Milwaukee Brewers
  18. Tampa Bay Rays
  19. New York Mets
  20. Toronto Blue Jays
  21. Minnesota Twins
  22. Baltimore Orioles 
  23. Los Angeles Dodgers 
  24. Atlanta Braves 
  25. San Diego Padres 
  26. New York Yankees
  27. Philadelphia Phillies 
  28. Houston Astros 
  29. Arizona Diamondbacks 
  30. Texas Rangers
  31. Arizona Diamondbacks
  32. Baltimore Orioles 
  33. Minnesota Twins
  34. Baltimore Orioles
  35. Arizona Diamondbacks
  36. Cleveland Guardians
  37. Pittsburgh Pirates
  38. Colorado Rockies
  39. Kansas City Royals

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