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2025 MLB Draft

MLB Mock Draft 2025 2.0: As Goes The Nationals So Goes Round 1

MLB Mock Draft 2025 2.0: As Goes The Nationals So Goes Round 1

The Washington Nationals own the No. 1 pick in the draft. Ethan Holliday, Seth Hernandez and nearly any player with a top-10 grade could be in play.

May 16, 2025 by Joe Harrington
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The 2025 NCAA College Baseball season is getting closer to Omaha and MLB teams are less than two months away from the All-Star Break. 

The 2025 MLB Draft in Atlanta will be here quicker than a Paul Skenes fastball and pitching is the story of the draft. 

Or is it?

At the start of the college baseball season, the draft outlook centered around two players: Texas A&M outfielder Jace LaViolette and Ethan Holliday. Those were the two best prospects in the draft class and one was a college slugger coming off a strong sophomore season and the other was yet another top prospect son of a former MLB All-Star slugger. 

In the first FloBaseball Mock Draft, we didn’t pick either of those players, bucking a trend, and went with Jamie Arnold of Florida State Baseball. Two months later, Arnold seems to be among the favorites to land No. 1 to the Washington Nationals according to many other mock drafts. 

Maybe we started a trend? Lol, no. 

Arnold did that himself. In 55 innings entering May 10, Arnold carried a 2.29 ERA and a 5-1 record with 72 strikeouts for the Seminoles. Teams were batting just .182 against him. 

And what’s become fascinating is Holliday, the No. 1 prospect in the FloSports Composite rankings, may not even be No. 2. Seth Hernandez, the high school right-hander from the nation’s No. 1 program, Corona, Calif., could not only wind up going No. 1, but might land at No. 2. 

It’s time to take a second look at the Mock Draft. 

1. Washington Nationals: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State Baseball

Perhaps the player always expected to go No.1 in this draft indeed does that with Ethan Holliday. But we’ve been pretty consistent here with the Nationals needing to upgrade pitching and Jamie Arnold has been the best pitcher in college baseball all season. 

It seems pretty likely that the Nationals are deciding between Holliday, Arnold or Hernandez and that decision will impact how the rest of the first round goes. 

2. Los Angeles Angels: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona, Calif. 

The last few years have been dominated by college prospects at the top of the draft but Hernandez could be the first high school player taken first overall since Ethan Holliday’s brother Jackson in 2022. That pick has worked out thus far as Jackson Holliday made one of the fastest debuts in recent baseball history for a prep prospect. 

Hernandez is trying to become the first high school pitcher taken No. 1 since Brady Aiken in 2014 by the Houston Astros. Some believe he’s the most talented prospect in the class as he touches 100 MPH and stands 6-foot-4, 190 pounds. But as with all high school pitchers, there’s risk because Hernandez wouldn’t be debuting, at least unlikely to, any time soon. The Angels are in a position to wait. 

3. Seattle Mariners: Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater, Okla. 

When the Mariners won the No. 3 pick in the draft, it seemed like a gift. This team had a disappointing 2024 season but are in a World Series contending window with an MVP-caliber hitter (Julio Rodriguez) and a strong and deep rotation. Adding a top-three pick to the mix gave a team that has not fared well in free agency another additional piece. But the way the draft could fall, the No.1 player in the class– much like last season when Charlie Condon was considered the No. 1 prospect -- will be available a couple picks below the top. 

Timeline wise, it probably doesn’t help the Mariners, and no one should expect him to move as quickly as his brother did through the minors. Both MLB and Baseball America believe Holliday goes No. 1 to the Nationals and if he doesn’t the Angels will certainly consider him. In this mock, we’re picking the pitching winning out, which is a win for the Mariners. 

4. Colorado Rockies: Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee Baseball

Some have Liam Doyle, making a case as the best pitcher in college baseball this season, going as high as No. 2. The 6-foot-2 Doyle has dominated the SEC this season. I’d say Texas A&M slugger Jace LaViolette could be an option, but his disastrous junior season is dropping him. 

5. St. Louis Cardinals: Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU Baseball

The St. Louis Cardinals are taking a pitcher here. Their system lacks them and the current rotation is void of young arms. A college lefty who could target late 2026 or early 2027 to debut is something an organization, that may not be committed to a long rebuild, would covet.

Anderson is the second-best lefty in this class and if Arnold doesn’t go in the top 4, the Cardinals will be all over him. Some have Anderson going as high as No. 3 and before Arnold. Anderson is among the strikeout leaders in college baseball. 

6. Pittsburgh Pirates: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State Baseball

Oh, Pittsburgh. 

Just when it looks like the Pirates could be headed into a competitive era, the team is off to one of the worst starts in baseball. How does the awful start impact the Pirates draft? Well, one has to look at when Paul Skenes is arbitration eligible (2027) and when team control runs out (2030). 

Many totally dismiss what a big league club is doing when considering prospects in the draft. They do the outlook in a vacuum. They act that way because so many front offices act that way. But for the last few seasons baseball has had more first round picks make the majors before June the following year. We’ve seen players surge through systems after being drafted and nearly make the club out of spring training. 

The Pirates need impact everyday players who can help a rotation of Skenes, Bubba Chandler (currently dominating Triple-A and one of the top pitching prospects in baseball) and Jared Jones become contenders for the next four seasons. Last year the Pirates took high school prospect Konnor Griffin in the top 10. They also transitioned Oneil Cruz to center field, seen Henry Davis (a former No. 1 overall pick) and Endy Rodriguez flounder at catcher. Players haven’t quite panned out and the Pirates don’t spend money in free agency. 

So it makes sense that the Pirates would take the best college hitter and possibly the top college everyday prospect here. 

They could opt for a pitcher if one of the prospects drops, but the Pirates need a bat in the system. If Arquette is here – not a given since some mocks have going No. 2 – this should be an easy pick. 

7. Miami Marlins: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton (Okla.)

The Marlins are a young and interesting team in 2025 but will finish in last place in the NL East (too soon to call that?) and are probably not close to the end of a rebuild. Willits, son of Reggie Willits, is the second-best high school everyday player in this draft. He’s No. 5 on the FloBaseball prospect rankings. He could go to the Rockies at No. 4, but this seems like the spot. 

8. Toronto Blue Jays: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP. Oklahoma Baseball

He’s one of the fastest rising prospects in the draft as he throws gas for the Sooners and carries a 2.45 ERA in 77 innings with 104 strikeouts. 

The Blue Jays just signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a huge extension. And while Bo Bichette hasn’t played like someone who wants a big extension in almost a year now, I expect Toronto figures out a contract. One of the largest markets in the sport, the Blue Jays want to win now and need more pitching. 

Witherspoon and probably and UC Santa Barbara pitcher Tyler Bremner seem like fits to go with 2024 first round pick Trey Yesavage, who was a top-10 projected pick before a scary injury to end his college season in 2024. 

9. Cincinnati Reds: Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M

MLB Pipeline’s mock draft also had LaViolette dropping to the Reds. Frankly it seems like the Reds getting the player FloBaseball had as the No. 1 prospect in the class to start the year at No. 9 is quite make-up for one of the bigger losers in the MLB Draft lottery. 

The strikeouts are concerning, especially considering where he was a year ago. His average is almost 30 points down, his home run numbers are down and his hits are down. But it seems like it’s just enough of a dip to push a player who could still be the quickest to the majors based on his power numbers to land in an optimal spot. It reminds me a lot of Nick Kurtz who started 2024 as one of the top prospects and then found himself mocked at the back end of the top 10. Kurtz wound up going No. 4 (which is still a drop from the first mock draft we did in 2024) and he made his debut in May 2025. 

The Reds farm system has been very good this decade and the system appears set to once again promote its first round pick to the majors a little more than a year after taking him (Rhett Lowder in 2024 and have you seen Chase Burns in Double-A– my goodness). But it has struggled with outfielders. This is the only pick the Reds have in the top 40. A high-quality outfielder here who worst case scenario is he’s playing in 2027 goes a long way. 

10. Chicago White Sox: Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (Calif.) 

Corona High School is the best high school team in America for a reason. They could have not only two but three players taken in the first round this year. Seth Hernandez could go No. 1. Carlson isn’t quite Holliday or Willits right now, but Holliday and Willits aren’t as good of a defender as Carlson. The White Sox can wait for Carlson to fix his swing. 

The Next 10 Picks In The 2025 MLB Draft 

  • 11. Athletics: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset (Ore.)
  • 12. Texas Rangers: Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson (Texas)
  • 13. San Francisco Giants: Marek Houston SS, Wake Forest 
  • 14. Tampa Bay Rays: JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (Miss.)
  • 15. Boston Red Sox: Ike Irish, C, Auburn 
  • 16. Minnesota Twins: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (Ala.)
  • 17. Chicago Cubs: Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
  • 18. Arizona Diamondbacks: Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (Ga.)
  • 19. Baltimore Orioles: Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona
  • 20. Milwaukee Brewers: Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina

Notes: Schoolcraft going No. 11 seems like the wildest take on this draft with Riley Quick, Tyler Bremner and J.B. Middleton available. But I’m looking at the organization and the direction the A’s are going and still banking that this team is committed to a long rebuild and believing on a 6-foot-8 lefty with a 98 MPH fastball is something they would want. He’s the No. 13-rated prospect on our board and the sixth pitcher. 

I think Ike Irish and Luke Stevenson are somewhat interchangeable if a team is taking a college catcher and I like Irish’s overall skillset. 

The Next 7 Picks In The 2025 MLB Draft

  • 21. Houston Astros: Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS (Calif.)
  • 22. Atlanta Braves: Riley Quick, RHP, Alabama Baseball
  • 23. Kansas City Royals: Gavin Kilen, IF, Tennessee Baseball
  • 24. Detroit Tigers: Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas Baseball
  • 25. San Diego Padres: Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Veron (Wash.)
  • 26. Philadelphia Phillies: Ethan Conrad, OF, Wake Forest Baseball
  • 27. Cleveland Guardians: J.B. Middleton, RHP, Southern Mississippi Baseball

The traditional first round loses three picks due to the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets being penalized 10 spots for exceeding the second surcharge threshold of the Competitive Balance Tax. 

Notes: Ethan Conrad is a prospect who could go 10 spots earlier or drop past Cleveland at No. 27. He lands in a good spot with Philly. The Royals probably should look at pitching but with mixed results from Jonathan India thus far, adding Kilen to be the future double-play combo with Bobby Witt Jr. seems like a win. Kilen is arguably the best hitter in college baseball and could be like 2024’s Tennessee’s infield standout, Christian Moore, and go in the top 10. 

Prospect Promotion Incentive Picks In The MLB Draft

If a player who was rated as a preseason Top 100 prospect by MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and/or ESPN (at least two of the three) and was on his team's Opening Day roster and goes on to win the Rookie of the Year Award or place in the top three in MVP or Cy Young voting prior to qualifying for arbitration, the club is awarded a Prospect Promotion Incentive pick after the first round.

  • 28. Kansas City Royals: Jack Bauer, LHP, Lincoln-Way East (Ill.)
    • Received for Bobby Witt Jr. finishing in top 3 of MVP voting. 

Compensation Picks In The MLB Draft 

If a team that loses a qualifying free agent is a revenue-sharing recipient and the free agent signs for at least $50 million, the team will be awarded a pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A.

  • 29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Slater de Brun, OF, Summit (Ore.)
    • Compensation for Christian Walker. The Astros forfeited their second- and fifth-round picks for signing Walker.
  • 30. Baltimore Orioles: Andrew Fischer, 1B, Tennessee Baseball
    • Compensation for Corbin Burnes. The Diamondbacks forfeited their second-round pick for signing Burnes.
  • 31. Baltimore Orioles: Devin Taylor, OF, Indiana Baseball
    • Compensation for Anthony Santander. The Blue Jays forfeited their second-round pick for signing Santander.
  • 32. Milwaukee Brewers: Cam Cannarella, OF, Clemson
    • Compensation for Willy Adames. The Giants forfeited their second- and fifth-round picks for signing Adames.

Notes: Baltimore has three picks in the top 32 and could restock the minors with high school prospects and also could use pitching. Their pitching has been awful this season, we get it, but these picks won’t fix that in 2025 or even 2026. Instead we have them taking three players who could contribute by next year. Summerhill in the top 20 and Devin Taylor at No. 31. Enrique Bradfield and Vance Honeycutt are in the system now for Baltimore. But I expect Baltimore to be trading from its system this offseason and maybe even make pitching moves at the deadline for 2026 despite being 9 games out of first place as of May 15. 

Competitive Balance Round A MLB Draft Picks

All teams that have either one of the 10 smallest markets or 10 smallest revenue pools receive an additional pick at the end of the first or second round. The groups of teams alternate between the two rounds each year.

Competitive Balance picks may be traded and are not subject to forfeiture. However, Competitive Balance picks acquired by another club in a trade are subject to forfeiture.

The Dodgers, Mets and Yankees each received a 10-pick penalty on their first picks for exceeding the second surcharge threshold of the Competitive Balance Tax, meaning their first picks will occur in Competitive Balance Round A.

  • 33. Boston Red Sox: Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina
    • Acquired from the Brewers in the trade for Quinn Priester.
  • 34. Detroit Tigers: Sean Gamble, OF, IMG Academy 
  • 35. Seattle Mariners: Max Belyeu, OF, Texas Baseball
  • 36. Minnesota Twins: Patrick Forbes, RHP, LSU Baseball
  • 37. Tampa Bay Rays: Josh Hammond, RHP, Wesleyan Christian (N.C.) 
  • 38. New York Mets: Dean Curley, SS, Tennessee Baseball 
  • 39. New York Yankees: Brandon Compton, OF, Arizona State Baseball
  • 40. Los Angeles Dodgers: Cameron Appenzeller, LHP, Glenwood (Ill.)
  • 41. Los Angeles Dodgers: Tate Southisene, SS, Basic (Nev.)
    • Acquired from the Reds in the trade for Gavin Lux.
  • 42. Tampa Bay Rays: Ethan Petry, OF, South Carolina Baseball
    • Acquired from the Athletics in the trade for Jeffrey Springs and Jacob Lopez.
  • 43. Miami Marlins: Briggs McKenzie, LHP, Corinth Holders (N.C.)

Notes: The World Champion Dodgers sneak in with two picks in the top 50. The Dodgers take a pair of high-upside high school prospects. Seattle taking Max Belyeu of Texas seems like another steal as Belyeu would likely be going in the top 20 had he not missed time with the Longhorns this season. 

When Is The 2025 MLB Draft?

The MLB Draft helps kickoff All-Star Week on July 13 and ends on July 15 in Atlanta. 

2025 MLB Draft Order

Here is the first round, PPI and compensation picks and competitive balance round A order. The Dodgers, Mets and Yankees each received a 10-pick penalty on their first picks for exceeding the second surcharge threshold of the Competitive Balance Tax, meaning their first picks will occur in Competitive Balance Round A.

  1. Washington Nationals
  2. Los Angeles Angels
  3. Seattle Mariners
  4. Colorado Rockies
  5. St. Louis Cardinals
  6. Pittsburgh Pirates
  7. Miami Marlins
  8. Toronto Blue Jays
  9. Cincinnati Reds
  10. Chicago White Sox
  11. Athletics
  12. Texas Rangers
  13. San Francisco Giants
  14. Tampa Bay Rays
  15. Boston Red Sox
  16. Minnesota Twins
  17. Chicago Cubs
  18. Arizona Diamondbacks
  19. Baltimore Orioles
  20. Milwaukee Brewers
  21. Houston Astros
  22. Atlanta Braves
  23. Kansas City Royals
  24. Detroit Tigers
  25. San Diego Padres
  26. Philadelphia Phillies
  27. Cleveland Guardians
  28. Kansas City Royals: PPI
  29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Comp
  30. Baltimore Orioles: Comp
  31. Baltimore Orioles: Comp
  32. Milwaukee Brewers: Comp
  33. Milwaukee Brewers: Balance Round A
  34. Detroit Tigers: Balance Round A
  35. Seattle Mariners: Balance Round A
  36. Minnesota Twins: Balance Round A
  37. Tampa Bay Rays: Balance Round A
  38. New York Mets: Balance Round A
  39. New York Yankees: Balance Round A
  40. Los Angeles Dodgers: Balance Round A
  41. Los Angeles Dodgers: Balance Round A
  42. Tampa Bay Rays: Balance Round A
  43. Miami Marlins: Balance Round A

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